Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Thoughts on NH

The media just needs to STFU. They pronounced Hillary dead, but clearly she is alive and well. This by no means, is the death of Obama. In terms of delegates, they tied in NH so it wasn't a crushing defeat. The only thing Hillary can celebrate is that fact that she did better than what "the media" predicted. If you look at the overall vote count, and these are rough estimates from CNN, Democrats crushed Republicans in overall votes. Both Hillary and Obama had over 100,000 votes, while McCain had 87,000 and Romney had 74,000. The question is, if Hillary gets the nomination, does she get Obama and Edwards votes in NH or vice versa. I'm not even counting Edwards out at this point because we still have South Carolina. On the Republican side, it seems most of McCain's support came from Republicans, not independents as initially thought. Therefore, regardless of the Republican contender, NH looks blue in the general election, but McCain probably does better than Romney. I still think Obama has a better chance than Hillary in the overall election because I would imagine a lot of Obama's independent support goes to a Republican if Hillary gets the nomination. We'll see what happens. I'd like to see Obama, Hillary and Edwards fight it out for another month or so because the competition is good, it keeps the issues at the forefront, and it keeps the candidates from getting complacent. On the Republican side, McCain, Huckabee and Romney are all alive. Don't count out Romney yet. He's still leading in terms of overall delegates, and I don't expect Huckabee to do well outside of Bible country.

1 comment:

Marc said...

Here's the delegate count. There are still thousands to be awarded, but it's laughable because CNN says McCain/Clinton take the lead. Clinton is 2nd and McCain is 3rd.

Delegate Count
Obama 25
Clinton 24
Edwards 18

Romney 24
Huckabee 18
McCain 10